Our Daily Bets & Wagers
Record to date 71-67-3
AS ALWAYS GO WITH LUCK!
2014 Is In The Books
We finished Week 17 Real Fan Five 4-1.
That put us for the season 44-38-3 or 54%.
Not as good as we wanted but still turned a tiny profit.
Our goal this season was to give you as many of the high profile games as we could.
Then of course narrow them down to the five best wagers of the week.
We will continue to give you our best plays throughout the bowl season and NFL playoffs.
We’ll always let you know via Twitter when we post a play.
Look forward to putting in the work so we both can Keep Cashin.
NFL WEEK 17 REAL FAN FIVE
We made it all the way to week 17. This is a tough week to predict with most teams not really playing for anything that matters for this season. That being said there is value out there and we found it! #KeepCashin
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Vikings
San Diego Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
Play: Lions +7.5
Lots of playoff implications here as these two play for the division crown and a 1st round bye. I’m not saying the Lions will win but they are built to play this game close. With Eddie Lacy banged up the load is on Rodgers and the Lions will be able to be disruptive enough to keep it close.
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
Play: Panthers +3.5
No Steven Jackson, banged up Julio Jones among others and the one guy who is full go is the guy that will cost the Falcons, and that is head coach Mike Smith. Give me Ron Rivera in December and SuperCam gets it done.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Steelers -3.5
The Bengals may have the better D but they also have Andy Dalton and that has been the problem for Who Dey nation for the last few seasons. At home in friendly confines of Heinz Field the Steelers will be able to out score the Bengals and take AFC North.
Real Fan Five Week 16 Recap
Took it on the chin this past weekend going 1-4.
That puts the Real Fan 5 at 40-37-3 for the season.
This is the final week for the Real Fan Five !
Need to go 5 for 5 to hit 55% for the season and turn a profit.
Not going to be easy but is definitely possible.
The end of the football season doesn’t mean the end of the betting.
So we’ll continue to give you the plays that we play right here In The Book.
Merry Christmas and check back this weekend for the Final Real Fan Five.
Real Fan Five Week 16
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
Play: Jets +10.5
Kansas City Chiefs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Over 46
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans
Play: Ravens -5.5
Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys
Play: Colts +3.5
Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
Play: Cardinals +8
Real Fan Five Week 15 Recap 2-1-2
Real Fan Five Week 14 Recap: 1-4 This Week
36-33-1 Since Start
Seems like every time we gain some ground, we give it right back. Anyway at least we are on the right side of .500 and our goal of 60% winners is still well within reach. It’s a marathon not a sprint.
We’re working hard as we do each week to bring you Winners.
All NFL this week, look for the Real Fan 5 this weekend right here In The Book. Keep Cashin!
Real Fan Five NFL Week 14 Picks
New England Patriots vs San Diego Chargers
Play: Over 51.5
The Patriots are coming off a battle with the Green Bay Packers where they came up short. The San Diego Chargers are smarting off a last second win in a shootout against the Ravens at Baltimore.
Bottom Line: Sunny San Diego is the backdrop for two of the best quarterbacks in the world. Both of these offenses are humming and although, the Patriots have a good secondary, a healthy Ryan Mathews at running back should help take some pressure off of Phillip Rivers by adding balance for San Diego. The Chargers secondary is below average and they have no answer for the Gronk. Should be a tight game with Lots of points.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Arizona Cardinals
Play: Chiefs pick em
The Kansas City Chiefs coming in off of a whooping delivered by Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos Sunday night. The Arizona Cardinals are limping into this match-up after a loss to the Falcons.
Bottom Line: These are two fairly even teams. The issue for the Cardinals is health. No Andre Ellington, a banged up Larry Fitzgerald, no Honey Badger, and a very limited quaterback in Drew Stanton due to the injury of Carson Palmer will make for a long day for the Cards. One guy who is healthy is Kansas City running back Jamal Charles who will be the key to the Chiefs getting this win.
Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins
Play: Dolphins -3
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a last second loss to Phillip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers. The Miami Dolphins got an uninspired win Monday night from divisional rival New York Jets.
Bottom Line: Baltimore are just too beat up and the loss of Haloti Ngata to drug suspension is another crippling blow to defense of the Ravens. Everything they do starts their defensive tackle and with an already depleted secondary this is big trouble. The offense is dinged up too, although, the key guys are expected to play. This is a huge game with playoff implications and the Fins at home in hot temperatures with the healthier team feels like a winner.
Play: Dolphins -3 Go Fins!
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Steelers +4
A clash of Titans in the best division in the NFL, the AFC North. The Pittsburgh Steelers come in following a shootout loss to the New Orleans Saints at Heinz Field. The Cincinnati Bengals are fresh off of a win by escaping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Bottom Line: This game means as much to each team and being division rivals there are few surprises for each team. There is one major mismatch in this contest being this is a quarterback league. The Steelers have a good one and the Bengals have a bad one. I don’t trust Andy Dalton to make big plays or not turn the ball over which will make for a long day for that Bengal defense.
Play: Steelers +4 As hard as it is to do, Steelers outright.
College Football Championship Week Real Fan Five
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Florida State Seminoles ACC Championship Game
Play: Florida State -4
Two weeks ago I pointed to this game as one that the Florida State Seminoles should watch our for. Well that was before Georgia Tech lost its star receiver DeAndre Smelter. TCU jumping an undefeated FSU team should provide a little extra motivation for the Seminoles.
Bottom Line: The triple option that Georgia Tech runs can be a game changer but it doesn’t do you any good if you’re down 3 scores. I look for FSU to come out focused and make a statement by getting up early on the Yellow Jackets. If the Seminoles get up early the Jackets aren’t going to be able to dig out.
Play: Florida State -4 Seminoles Spear Jackets!
REAL FAN FIVE WEEK 12 RECAP
3-2 For The Week
35-29 Overall Since Start Of Real Fan Five
Hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving and a profitable one as well. We had no write-ups this week due to the holiday but we did release our Real Fan Five via Twitter.
Back to our winning ways we hit both our college plays with Ole Miss Rebels out right over the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Also the Florida Gators giving a shaky Seminoles team of Florida State another scare in Tallahassee got us paid.
In the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals and the Kansas City Chiefs let us down but an Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay Packers effort save the day and gave us a winning week.
Check out the College and NFL preview specials for our thoughts and Games we are targeting In The Book. Please keep checking back for the official Real Fan 5 which will be posted later this week. Keep Cashin!
REAL FAN FIVE WEEK 11 RECAP
Mess with the moose and sometimes you get the horns. 1- 4 Won’t get it done!
Were 11-4 over the last three weeks it finally caught up to us this week and we got a little taste of the horns. No biggie, it’s a marathon not a sprint.
We’ll bounce back this week to get right back on track. Keep Cashin!
REAL FAN FIVE NFL WEEK 12
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants
Play: Cowboys -3.5
The Dallas Cowboys come into this game off the bye week after previous win in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The New York Giants are reeling after being blown out at home by the San Francisco 49ers.
Bottom Line: the Cowboys are well rested. Match-ups all over the field are horrible for the Giants. Dallas Cowboys run the ball and the Giants can’t stop the run. Eli Manning comes off a five interception game performance that could not have been worst. It’s a division game so no chance of the Cowboys coming in looking ahead to the match-up against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving. Plus let’s not forget about Tony Romo and the play action passing assault that will be available all game.
Play: Cowboys -3.5 How Bout Dem Cowboys!
Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos
Play: Dolphins +7
The Broncos finally come home after going 1-2 on the road with the win coming in Oakland and the losses to the Patriots and Rams. The Fins have been playing good football winning last Thursday at home vs the Bills.
Bottom Line: Another inflated line. The Fish have had extra time to prepare. The Broncos are just too banged up at the skill positions. No Julian Thomas, banged up Sanders, one healthy running back whose a third stringer at best, you get my point. I see a lower scoring game and the Broncos may win but I will gladly back the Dolphins with 7 points.
Play: Dolphins +7 Go Fins!
Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots
Play: Lions +7.5
The Detroit Lions are coming off a tough loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Now the Lions travel to Foxboro to face a New England Patriots team that is cruising after dismantling the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football.
Bottom Line: This line is inflated due to how dominate the Patriots have been in so many previous games. For Detroit this is a non conference game sandwiched between division leading rivals the Colts and Green Bay Packers. Lions have the number one defense in the league and Calvin Johnson is completely healthy. Patriots may win this game but 7.5 points is way too many.
Play: Lions +7.5 Go Lions!
REAL FAN FIVE COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13 PICKS
Missouri Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers
Play: Tennessee -3
One of the motivating factors for teams in college football is making a bowl game. We talked about this situation on our College Football Week 13 Podcast. Five win teams this time of year have extra motivation to become bowl eligible with a Sixth Victory.
Enter the Tennessee Volunteers, who under Butch Jones finally seem to be on their way back to relevance for the first time since Phil Fulmer and Rocky Top Glory Days competing yearly for SEC titles.
Bottom Line: Mizzou Tigers quarterback Matty Mauk has been inconsistent all year. He did have a good game last week against Texas A&M but the Vols have more speed on defense and should be able to get heat on Mauk. If the Vols create pressure then Mauk will create ways to turn the ball over. This is going to be a very focused, revenge minded Tennessee program looking to take a big step forward.
Play: Tennessee -3 Go Vols!
USC Trojans vs UCLA Bruins
Play: USC +4
In the battle of Los Angeles the USC Trojans head to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena to to take on their PAC-12 brethren the UCLA Bruins. This rivalry is on the brink of a renaissance thanks in large part to the intensity of both head coaches.
Bottom Line: These are two very evenly matched teams peaking at the right time. The difference in this one will be USC’s offensive line and rushing attack. UCLA plays a very safe defense and if you don’t get Buck Allen in the backfield, Good Luck. If USC can keep Bruins quarterback Brent Hundley and the UCLA high tempo offense from lighting up the scoreboard like the Hollywood sign. If USC Coach Sarkisian can get his defense off the field, the Trojans will walk out of the Rose Bowl still in the hunt for a PAC 12 Title.
Play: USC +4 Fight On!
Real Fan Five Is Catching Fire!
Real Fan Five Week 11 Recap 3-2 for the week. 31-23-1
After a couple of tough weeks we’ve rebounded and we’re 11-4 over the last 3 weeks.
Gotta keep the pedal to the metal, working hard, and picking winners. Keep Cashing!
Real Fan Five NFL Week 11 Picks
Oakland Raiders vs San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -10
Last time we saw the San Diego Chargers they were getting smoked by the Miami Dolphins. Philip Rivers was so bad he garnered negative points for fantasy owners The Oakland Raiders have been getting beat up by powerhouses like the Browns, Patriots, and Seahawks. Now the silver and black have to go into Qualcomm to play an angry Phillip Rivers who has been stewing for 2 weeks.
Bottom Line: The Lightning Bolts have been licking their wounds and should be ready to go for their playoff push. The Raiders are playing out the string and making arrangements to ship cars home. Hate laying this much chalk but this should be a woodshed beat down for the silver and black.
Play: San Diego Chargers -10 Go Bolts Go!
New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts
Play: Over 56.5
Both these teams come into this one with their offenses on cruise control. Tom Brady’s demise has been greatly exaggerated earlier this season and Andrew Luck is playing at the highest level.
Bottom line: Big time players play their best on the biggest stages and Sunday Night Football is a pretty big stage. Conditions will be perfect indoors and that bodes well for a shoot out. Look for Luck and Brady to light it up on Sunday Night.
Cincinnati Bengals vs New Orleans Saints
Play: Bengals +7.5
Cincinnati is still stinging from the ass kicking administered by the Browns last Thursday and the Saints have seemed to have worked some things out and are in first place in the NFC South.
Bottom line: After long week and being embarrassed in division, The Bengals will welcome the indoor elements of the dome. This isn’t the same high scoring machine we’re used to seeing from a Drew Brees led team. Who Dat may win, but this should a tight one and 7.5 is too much to pass up.
Play: Bengals +7.5 Who Dey!
In The Book CFB Week 12 Podcast
With John @ClevelandKoz Under The Radar Game
Southern Miss vs UTSA
We Talk More Games On The CFB Schedule
Real Fan Five CFB Picks Week 12
Florida State Seminoles vs Miami Hurricanes
Play: Miami Hurricanes +3
The Florida State Seminoles have been playing with fire and this may be the week they get burned. The Seminoles have been getting behind early only to fight their way back to stay undefeated. If FSU repeats this trend in Miami the Hurricanes will make them pay.
Bottom Line: One of the greatest rivalries in college football, these teams are actually fairly even when you look at the numbers. The Miami Hurricanes defense will have to come up with a couple turnovers. Also if Duke Johnson can find success Miami has a real shot here at pulling the upset.
Play: Miami Hurricanes +3 Go Canes!
Auburn Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs
Play: Georgia -2.5
The Georgia Bulldogs dropped 63 on the Kentucky Wildcats and still has an SEC title within it’s reach. The Auburn Tigers are reeling after being dropped last week in Jordan Hare Stadium by the Texas A&M Aggies.
Georgia gets Todd Gurley back after a four game suspension. This should be a huge lift for the offense and team morale.
Bottom Line: That was a devastating loss for Auburn last week and don’t think that bouncing back is going to be easy especially between the hedges. Both defenses stink so there’s going to be lots of points but think Auburn is the team that’s likely to make the big turnovers. The coaching match-up clearly goes to Auburn, but this game is going to be more about who makes the big plays on the field and not coaching strategy.
Play: Georgia -2.5 Go Dawgs!
Real Fan Five Recap Week 11
Another 4-1 week for the Real Fan 5! We caught some breaks to get us there, but it makes up for some of the tough losses this season. It’s been feast or famine all year. Fortunately we’re feasting more than starving, so far. Right back at it for week 12 looking to keep the snowball rolling.
In The Book CFB Week 11With John @ClevelandKoz
Best Bets For Saturday
Extended Conversation of College Football Week 11
Real Fan Five Week 11 Picks
49ers at Saints
Play; Saints -4
These are two teams going in opposite directions. The 49ers look tired and the Saints are finding their stride.
Bottom Line; The Saints at home vs a struggling 49ers who are playing at 10:00 amon their body clocks. Saints D has been good since the bye and they are the healthier team. Who Dat!
Chiefs at Bills
Play; Chiefs -2
Bills are off a bye and Chiefs are rolling. This one is about Andy Reid. He may be the best regular season HC in NFL history. His teams in the last 13 road games are 12-1 against the spread.
Bottom Line; I get a hot team who is healthier. Alex Smith takes care of the ball and Jamal Charles has been great. The D will be in Kyle Ortons shirt all day. Go Chefs!
Dolphins at Lions
Play; Lions -2.5
Miami has been playing well. Most recently beating down the Chargers. The Lions are coming off a bye.
Bottom Line; the Lions have a great D and they get Calvin Johnson back. I look for a close one but I get the home team off the bye, with the better QB. Roar Lions!
Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers
Play: Crimson Tide -6
This one has been the highlight game of the SEC season for the past several years. LSU is young but athletic and a wrecking ball defensively. Bama seems to be hitting its stride, especially offensively, now that OC Lane Kiffin and HC Nick Saban seem to have gotten on the same page.
Bottom line: LSU has momentum but this team is just too young and don’t have the skill guys on the offensive side of the ball. I look for Bama QB Blake Simms to have a big finish to the season and for the Crimson Tide to pull away, roll the Bayou Bengals and make a statement.
Play: Crimson Tide -6 Roll Tide!
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Arizona State Sun Devils
Play: Sun Devils -1.5
In what is one of several defacto playoff games between 1 loss teams the Irish head into Sun Devil Stadium for a showdown with ASU. Everett Golson has been the rock for Notre Dame this season however he has been sloppy as of late with 12 turnovers in his last 5 games. ASU has been very good on both sides of the ball and have been cruising. Bottom Line: The Sun Devils are healthy and QB Taylor Kelly is making plays with his arm and his legs. Notre Dame is missing maybe it’s best defender and teams are 2-7 the next week after facing Navy. Ask the Buckeyes.
Play: Sun Devils -1.5 Go Sun Devils!
Real Fan Five Recap Week 10
4-1 Last Week 24-20-1 Overall
Huge week as we took on the big games per usual. Back on track and ready to roll for week 11!
In The Book Podcast With
WAOB CFB Contributor John @ClevelandKoz
Real Fan Five Week 10 Picks
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Play; Ravens -1
I’ve watched a lot of both of these teams. Pittsburgh has beaten Houston and Indy since getting trounced by the Browns and Baltimore has struggled offensively vs Atlanta and Cincy. However Pittsburgh can’t stop anyone and Baltimore despite their offensive struggles split those 2 games and should have beat Cincy if not for a crooked referee.
Bottom Line; The Crows should be able to get right on offense vs the Steelers. Baltimore is a much better defensive team than Pittspuke. Ravens won the first one 26-6 and I don’t see much changing. Cawww!
Denver at New England
The Broncos have the better personnel in this one. The Patriots have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Weather will play a factor in this one as it’s going to be cold and windy and possible precipitation. The Pats are almost unbeatable at home over the last 44 home games they are 41-3. Tom Brady is 9-2 as a home dog in his career.
Bottom Line; The Pats have figured some things out on both sides of the ball. Bill Belichick knows how to contain Peyton Manning. We get Tom Brady at home and 3 pts. Go Pats!
Arizona at Dallas
Play; Cardinals +4
The Cowboys come into this one with an injured Tony Romo or Brandon Weeden at the helm. The Cardinals come in winning all 3 games they’ve played vs the NFC East. The Cowboys still have DeMarco Murray but the Cardinals have a top 5 defense vs the run. The Boys are also on a short prep week after a very physical game vs Washington on MNF.
Bottom Line; The Cards have the healthier, better coached team. The key matchups favor the Cards and I get 4 pts!?! Go Cards!
Stanford Cardinal vs Oregon Ducks
Play: Oregon -7.5
Well the Oregon Ducks are finally healthy and are running fools off the football field. The Stanford Cardinal has struggled at times this year but seem to have Oregon’s number, David Shaw’s team knocked off the the Ducks twice the last two seasons ending their national title hopes both years.
Ducks offensive line has stabilized by getting healthy since losing on a Thursday night in Tucson to the Arizona Wildcats. This game is at Autzen Stadium and Marcus Mariota has taken advantage of the extra time to pick apart UCLA, Washington and Cal the last 3 weeks. Stanford is going to have to score in this one and Cardinal quarterback Kevin Hogan with the rest of their offense have been underwhelming this season.
Bottom Line: This is a statement game for the Oregon Ducks who are sick of hearing about Stanford owning them!
Play: Oregon -7.5 #GoDucks
Texas Christian University Purple Horned Frogs at West Virginia University Mountaineers
Play: West Virginia +4.5
Morgantown is where National Championship dreams go to die. The TCU Horned Frogs are going into Mountaineer Field and will be up against more than just the WVU football team. The fans of West Virginia are some of the loudest, rowdiest home crowds in the country. With temperatures predicted in the high 30’s plus 20 mph winds weather will pose a challenge to the warm weather Horned Frogs from Texas. The temperature may be cold but, the Mountaineers are coming in white hot. Dana Holdgerson team comes in with wins over an undefeated Baylor two weeks ago then going down to Stillwater to torch the Pokes last week.
Bottom Line: TCU is very good but they haven’t been tested in an environment like this yet. This seems like a perfect storm for an upset in the land where couches go to burn.
Play: West Virginia +4.5 Take Me Home West Virginia!
REAL FAN FIVE Recap Week 8
Well here we are at the precipice after a red hot start we stand just one game over .500 Last Week Results 2-3. Season 20-19-1
We have our first two teams to make the fade only list in the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars, hate you both! Done jinxing the Buckeyes as well. Fade me, Tail me or use this to confirm your own suspicions but IS IT OVER????
Real Fan Five Sunday NFL Picks
Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints
Play: Saints -1
The Green Bay Packers go to the dome on Sunday night fresh off a beat down of the Carolina Panthers. However they struggled to beat the Miami Dolphins the previous week in South Beach. The New Orleans Saints gagged one away in Detroit last week and despite they’re struggles, especially on defense they are only one game back in the dreadful NFC South.
Bottom Line: We all know the Saints are bad on the road and better at home but, this is just as much about a desperate team as being at home. That being said, since 2010 the Saints are 11-0 in home primetime games and did I mention they really need this game.
Play: Saints -1 Who Dat!
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Play: Jets -3
I know, I know the J-E-T-S have been B-A-D. They’ve lost six in a row, but hear me out. The Buffalo Bills have lost both running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. So that problem feeds into a strength the New York Jets can do which is stop the run. That wouldn’t be as a big of a problem if it were Jim Kelly slinging the rock. But the year is 2014 so it’s cowboy Kyle Orton leading the charge. The Bills are one of the worst teams in the league on the road in divisional games.
Bottom Line: The Jets are at home, desperate and got a big lift this week with the addition of Percy Harvin. New York should be able to run the ball like last week which will give Geno Smith time to make throws. Bills are just too banged up and Orton will be forced to throw.
Play: Jets -3 J-E-T-S! Jets! Jets! Jets!
Dolphins at Jaguars
Play: Jaguars +6
We got to see first hand look at the Jacksonville Jaguars as Cleveland Browns fans last week. Each Sunday I have every NFL game available to watch but I can’t tell you why my eyeballs are always drawn to Jaguars games. What I saw last week was a team that plays hard and has talent. They’re a team that got stronger last year as the season wore on. The Miami Dolphins come in off a win in Chicago and going to Jacksonville may be a sleepy spot for the Fins.
Bottom Line: There’s no overwhelming mismatches in this game and teams take the Jags lightly, for good reason. That being said this is the NFL and these teams are so close so any given Sunday. Both teams are primed for a letdown so no edge there. The edge is the 6 points at home.
Play: Jaguars +6 Go Jags!
We Share More Week 9 College Football Picks With A Special Podcast
SATURDAY PICKS @CLEVELANDKOZ JOHN GOES IN THE BOOK WITH JAKE
WEEK 7 Real Fan 5 Picks
Ole Miss Rebels vs LSU Tigers
Play: LSU +4
The Ole Miss Rebels are the toast of college football, with good reason. Baton Rouge’s LSU Tigers have struggled at times especially with their offense. Points are going to be hard to come by in this game though these two teams are the top defenses in the country. Ole Miss quarterback Bo Wallace has been outstanding this year, but his track record is of a guy who will break your heart. The key is can LSU control the tempo behind that big experienced offensive line by running the football.
Bottom Line: Night game in Death Valley and getting 4 points in a game where scoring will be at a premium. You know the Mad Hattter will have a few tricks up its sleeve. Pressure bursts pipes! It’s A Trap For The Rebels Take the 4.
Play: LSU +4 Geaux Tigers!
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions
Play: Buckeyes -13.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes come into this game as one of the hottest teams in America, with Freshman quarterback JT Barrett holding top spot in qpr rating at 90%. Meanwhile the Penn State Nittany Lions have the #6 ranked defense and a quarterback Christian Hackenberg who’ll be playing on Sundays. Expected WhiteOut not weather but crowd in Happy Valley and that myopic fan base will bring it per usual. Problem is the team on the field doesn’t have the horses to hang a much improved Buckeyes team.
Bottom Line: There are too many mismatches across the board for Penn State to overcome, most notably match-up at head coach. Urban Meyer and his staff have a discernible advantage on the sideline over first year coach James Franklin. Expect to see Hackenberg under constant pressure from a stout Buckeyes defensive line. The JT Barrett for Heisman campaign will continue to gain momentum and the Buckeyes Roll Big!!!
Play: Buckeyes -13.5 As Always #GoBucks
Week 7 Real Fan 5 Recap
Week 7 saw us hit a couple, miss a couple and took tough loss in our only college game.
The Real Fan 5 is 18-16-1 for the season and primed for a big weekend! Here We Go!
Real Fan 5 Week 7 Picks
San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos comes in off a tough game versus the New York Jets compared to the San Francisco 49ers who had an easy victory over the St Louis Rams on Monday Night Football.
The 49ers have been the NFL’s best road team over the past few seasons their 18-8 since 2011 also compiled an 11-2 record in their last 13 games against the spread. Colin Kaepernick although inconsistent remains the hardest quarterback in the league for opposing coaches to prepare for.
Bottom Line: The way to beat Peyton Manning is to get pressure in his face and the Niners are a team who can do that even without the blitzing. Vernon Davis is healthy and that is huge factor for the San Fran offense. Everyone knows Davis is Kaepernick’s go to guy. Denver may win but wouldn’t be shocked to see the 49ers go on the road and take out the Broncos.
Giants at Cowboys
Play: Giants +6.5
Can’t let whiffing on the Giants last week scare us off. The New York Giants getting smoked by the Philadelphia Eagles puts them in a great spot against a Cowboys team coming off a great win against the Super Bowl Champs. Tony Romo is more banged up than is being led on which means were one play away from the Brandon Weeden era beginning in Big D.
The Giants will be fired up after what surely was a tough week of practice and getting screamed at by Tom Coughlin.
Bottom Line: Dem Boys always let down in this spot and the Giants are still a road cover machine the last few years. It’s a divisional game and before last week this was a 3.5 pt game. Can you say overreaction!?!
Play: Giants +6.5 GO G-MEN!!!
Saints at Lions
Play: Saints +3
The New Orleans Saints come into this one off a bye and hopefully that gives Coach Sean Payton time to get on the same page with Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan. The Detroit Lions are smarting after a 17-3 win over the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday at Ford Field.
The Lions defense looks legit with their strength being stopping the run but the Saints don’t rely heavily on the run. The Saints should be able to put up points easily against the depleted Lions secondary due to injury. I know, the Saints are on the road, but this is indoors and not a hostile enviroment like week 2 in the Dawg Pound. Look for the Saints to score easily with the Lions to struggling to move the ball on offense with no Megatron and a banged up running back corp.
Play: Saints +3 #WHODAT
Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts
Play: Colts -3
Cincinnati Bengals Andy Dalton and Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck lead the battle of the AFC’s two first place teams when the meet on Sunday. The Colts come into this game healthy and with extra practice days after beating the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football. Meanwhile the Bengles will clearly be angry and still injured after the result of a tie game with the Carolina Panthers. Not having wide receiver AJ Green is a huge loss that trickles down to every other skill position player.
Bottom Line: The Colts have the better quarterback and if the Bengals can’t get pressure on Luck, he’ll pick them apart. I don’t trust Andy Dalton and the Bengals aren’t the same team on the road as in the Jungle.
Play: Colts -3 #GoColts
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils
Play: Virginia Cavaliers +4
This Saturday will be a battle for the lead of the Coastal division in the Atlantic Coastal Conference. The Virginia Cavaliers have had a resurgence this season thanks in large part to their defense. Cavaliers Coach Mike London’s recruits seem to be finally living up to their potential. Duke is a very balanced team that is well coached by David Cucliffe. But this year’s version is not nearly as talented a team that took Johnny Football to the wire in last year’s Chick-fil-A bowl.
Bottom line: Virginia has proven they are a good team and one of the better defenses in the country. Duke is solid but they are not blowing out The Cavaliers.
Play: Virginia Cavaliers +4 Wa-Hoo-Wa
Real Fan 5 Week 6 Recap
After a 15-4-1 start we’ve gone 1-9 over the last two weeks. This is a streaky business and just need to weather the storm. The College Football world is upside down right now, lots of favorites are covering early on Saturdays and late on Sundays in the NFL. We Get Back On Track This Week!
The Real Fan 5 Week 6 Picks
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Giants +3
Philadelphia Eagles Chip Kelly and The New York Giants Tom Coughlin bring their teams into this NFC East battle both riding high.
The Giants seem to have found their mojo on offense as Eli Manning is distributing the ball to keep everyone involved. The defense which was lambasted all preseason continuing into the regular season but has found stability and started to play well.
The Eagles have been winning but it has been a struggle. Shady McCoy still hasn’t been able to get on track and the early success of Darren Sproles has subsided. This is a team that is very beat up especially on the OLine and at Linebacker.
Bottom Line: Eli Manning is hot and Nick Foles is being exposed as a slow, dump down quarteback. The Eagles are too banged up and not a very good home team.
Play: Giants +3 Take the points. Go G-Men
Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins
Play: under 49
The Green Bay Packers are winners of two straight after Aaron Rodgers told the fan base to R E L A X.
The Miami Dolphins coming off the bye week welcome the return of center Mike Pouncey. Miami is coached by former Green Bay offensive corrdinator Joe Philbin which definitely gives the Dolphins an advantage in game planning for Rodgers and the Pack offense.
Bottom Line: Look for the Dolphins to try to keep the ball away from Rodgers by running the ball behind Pouncey and their offensive line. With the Packers being horrible versus the run guarantee running backs are fed early and often. But expect the Packers to try to get their ground game going with Eddie Lacy who has found success the last two weeks. This is a very emotionless game between to teams who have no rivalry, which usually leads to boring low score games.
Play: Under 49 #GETLOW
USC Trojans vs Arizona Wildcats
Play: USC -2.5
On the surface this looks like two teams going in opposite directions. However lets not crown the Wildcats the PAC12 champions just yet.
The Arizona Wildcats were able to run the ball on a smallish Oregon Ducks defense and they won’t find the USC offensive line as friendly to penetration as the Oregon Ducks.
The Trojans have plenty to play for as a PAC-12 title is still well within reach.
Bottom Line: This is a perfect situational play as Arizona comes in riding high and USC comes off a Hail Mary last second loss. The match ups on the field and on the sideline favor the Trojans.
Play: USC -2.5 Fight On
Oregon at UCLA
Play: UCLA +3
Two PAC-12 powerhouses come in reeling after both suffered stunning losses last week. Oregon was taken down by Arizona on Thursday night in Eugene and the Bruins lost to Utah as a game winning kick sailed wide as time expired.
This game is going to come down to whether or not the Ducks offensive line can open holes and protect Marcus Mariota who has been under constant distress. Oregon is very skilled and fast but undersized. Also, let’s be honest, they’re not the same team that was dropping 70 points consistently under Chip Kelly.
Bottom Line: I have these teams very even. We get the Bruins at home with the same motivation as Oregon and 3 points, seems like some value to me.
Play: UCLA +3
Another great SEC matchup with two Heisman Trophy candidates going toe t toe with Nick Marshall of Auburn and Dak Prescott of Mississippi State.
This Saturday in Starkville is going to go a long way to determining the four teams in the College Football Playoff.
Mississippi State is coming into this match-up off the biggest game of the year with the win over Texas A&M and now they play Auburn in the, well, biggest game of the year. The Tigers have been rolling teams for almost 2 years, minus that one game last January. Point is Gus Malzone and his team have been there, done that. They know how to handle success and praise. I also happen to think they have better players.
Bottom Line: I think this Auburn team has another gear we haven’t seen yet and Mississippi State has not had to play many games with pressure and expectations.
Play: Auburn -2.5 WAR-EAGLE!!!
The Real Fan 5 Week 5 Recap
Well we finally got our comeuppance going 1-4 on the week. It is not as bad as it looks though.
The Clemson Tigers our only winner was an easy one as they routed the NC State Wolfpack. Stanford was up 4 when on 4th and Gary,Indiana Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson threw a TD to to win the game for the Fighting Irish. The
Tennessee Volunteers controlled most of the game until Florida Gators coach Will Muschamp decided to make a change at quarterback with now suspended player Treon Harris who dealt the Vols a one point loss.
Sunday we whiffed on the Patriots/Bengals under. Finally on Monday night it took a last minute field goal by the Seattle Seahawks to spoil the 7.5 points we were getting with Washington.
We’re back at it for Week 6 looking for a big rebound.
The Real Fan 5 Week 5
Stanford Cardinal vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Play: Stanford -2
The Stanford Cardinal head to South Bend to take on the very hot Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson has made such a strong case for an invitation to New York as a Heisman finalist after dominating the first 4 games. This game will be the stiffest competition for the Fighting Irish, as Stanford visits with very talented quarterback Kevin Hogan and an experienced Cardinal defense.
The sideline showdown between the demonstrative Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly and his counterpart the reserved David Shaw of Stanford is worth the price of admission.
Bottom line; This is a situation of a team that has been battle tested versus a team who has yet to play any competent opponents. The Cardinal have a wealth of talent across the board.
Play: Stanford -2
They’ll be partying all night back in Palo Alto!
NC State Wolfpack vs Clemson Tigers
Play: Clemson -14
The Clemson Tigers play their second of three straight games in Death Valley, on Saturday against the NC State Wolfpack. Clemson comes off of a drubbing of The North Carolina Tar Heels while NC State put up a good fight before coming up just short against the Florida State Seminoles
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney has this Tigers team improving each week. They already played well on defense but now the young offense is starting to catching up.
The Wolfpack struggles on defense but can move the ball with their offense. The Florida Gators transfer quarterback Jacoby Brisset has been lights out so far, getting great blocking and playing in a clean pocket. A big key will be if Clemson’s defense led by Vic Beasley can bring pressure and get in his face.
Bottom line: The Wolfpack has been impressive so far going 4-1 but had not really been tested until last week. They expended a lot of energy trying to beat the Seminoles and mental fatigue will be an issue for them. I expect Clemson to create turnovers which will help the offense be productive with so many more opportunities.
Play: Clemson -14
Florida Gators vs Tennessee Volunteers
Play: Vols -2.5
Neyland Stadium along with all of Knoxville will be rocking come Saturday when the hated Florida Gators come calling.
Tennessee Volunteers head coach Butch Jones has this program on the verge of relevance and restoring the proud tradition to this program. Quarterback Justin Worley and wide receiver Von Pearson have the offense humming after dropping 32 points last week on the Georgia Bulldogs. The defensive struggles continued in the last two weeks after facing the Oklahoma Sooners and the Dawgs offenses.
The Florida Gators are a far cry from the days of Urban Meyer or The Head Ball Coach Steve Spurrier. Current Florida football coach Will Muschamp is more like Ron Zook than above mentioned predecessors. Quarterback Jeff Driskel has been abysmal all year and what should be the Gators strong suit, the defense, has let #GatorNation down with a terrible performance against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Bottom line: this is a story of two teams heading in opposite directions. Muschamp seems to be “dead man walking” and seems his team knows it by now. The Volunteers are becoming an above average offense and Butch Jones brings a big advantage on the sidelines.
Play: Vols -2.5
Tennessee Will Be Singing “Rocky Top” All Night Long.
The “Real Fan 5” Week 4 Recap
Week 4 Record is 3-1-1 #RealFan5 Now 15-4-1 Overall
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Quarterback Everett Golson was all over the Orangeman of Syracuse . The NC State Wolfpack were ready for the Florida State Seminoles but quarterback Jameis Winston’s late game heroics lifted the team to victory. However the Seminoles do not cover.
As for the NFL missed with pick of the Carolina Panthers as Steve Smith Sr served up his revenge in a Baltimore Ravens uniform. The San Francisco 49ers kept the Philadelphia Eagles offense grounded but a punt block returned for a touchdown, punt return that went for a touchdown, combined with an interception for touchdown. Made it impossible to cover in this contest. Somehow this game landed right on the number 5, which is a dead number in almost every outcome.
In the last Real Fan 5 pick another NFL game we called for the straight upset and got it! The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were successful with a victory by scoring on the last drive which Pittsburgh Steelers fans stunned.
We heed the wise words of Crash Davis in Bull Durham “Don’t Fuck With A Winning Streak”
Real Fan Five Week 4
Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have gotten away from the aggressive, physical team who went to consecutive NFC championship games. Finesse has been identity on offense with a spread attack, led to a second half collapse last week against the Chicago Bears. Expect Jim Harbaugh to get his team back to last season form with smash-mouth football against the Philadelphia Eagles. Getting tight end Vernon Davis back will be huge for the struggling 49ers offense. Philadelphia Coach Chip Kelly will have a few tricks up his sleeve with his high powered offense but the story will be can the defense get stops.
Bottom line: the 49ers coming off back to back losses will be very determined to get back on track. The Eagles will have a hard time executing the same kind of precision offense that flourishes in Philly. Also Levi’s stadium could keep the Eagles grounded with the worst turf a 300 million dollars can buy!
Play: 49ers -5
Carolina Panthers vs Baltimore Ravens
The Ratbirds better known as the Baltimore Ravens escaped a loss on a last second field goal against the Cleveland Browns. They Ravens return home to take welcome in a Carolina Panthers team that got embarrassed by the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Baltimore has plenty of distractions including the antics of former Carolina Panthers receiver Steve Smith.
The Carolina Panthers should be focused on winning this game, also quieting the loud Steve Smith. Panthers quarterback Cam Newton will be able to extend plays and find guys down field like rookie play-maker Kelvin Benjamin. Linebacker Luke Kuechely and Panthers also have something to prove with their defense.
Bottom Line: An angry Panthers team will be ready for this one from a week of licking their wounds. Think the Panthers win outright, but really like getting 3.5
Play: Panthers +3.5 PANTHERS ROAR!
Play: Buccaneers +9.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a big road win in Charlotte versus the Carolina Panthers. Steelers will return to Heinz field to play an underwhelming opponent in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It seems issues persist between Big Ben Roethlisberger and Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley.
So until that offense can put a couple of complete games together in a row skepticism abounds.
Let’s face it the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a mess but after naming Mike Glennon starting quarterback combined with running back Doug Martin’s return to the offense.
Buccaneers should move the ball on a banged up Steelers defense who have brought linebacker James Harrison out of retirement.
Bottom Line: Buccaneers are desperate for a win. On paper Tampa Bay matches up well with Pittsburgh. Steelers seem ripe for the picking in a this letdown game . Also 9.5 points is too many.
Play: Buccaneers +9.5 Buccaneers Aren’t Booty!
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Syracuse Orangeman East Rutherford, New Jersey
Notre Dame -9.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish are fresh after the bye week where they left Big Ten bottom feeders Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan Wolverines in their wake.
Brian Kelly will have to have the Fighting Irish focused with this tough road game to make sure his team is not looking ahead to match-up with the Stanford Cardinals the following week.
Quarterback Everett Golson has been impressive making all the throws, seems to have matured in his time missing from the program, and is now a difference maker for the Fighting Irish.
As for the Syracuse Orangeman are coming in reeling from a tough home loss to the Maryland Terrapins. The Orangeman return fifteen starters from last year which makes them dangerous and one of the most experienced teams in the country.
Bottom line: This game opened at 14 and has been bet all the way down to its current 9.5. Taking this game under 10 is the key, Syracuse will hang around for awhile but Notre Dame should pull away in the second half.
Notre Dame -9.5 Play Like A Champion Today!
Florida State vs NC State
This game could be the perfect setup for another NC State Wolfpack upset. The Florida State Seminoles are coming off an emotional and physically demanding contest with the Clemson Tigers. The backdrop of the victory marred with distractions of the Heisman winner James Winston and his suspension.
NC State comes into this match-up undefeated after beating two not very formidable teams in Georgia Southern University and Presbyterian College. This will be their first real test of the season with the Seminoles. The last time Florida State who was ranked #3 overall visited Raleigh the trip was unsuccessful with the Seminoles losing by just one point. The WolfPack are a very capable offense led by the Florida Gators transfer Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Bottom line: The Seminoles are coming off a very contentious week. NC State looks at this as another statement game, with the Seminoles still carrying bad memories of Raleigh. Too many points here to pass up in this Atlantic Coastal Conference game.
Play: NC State +20
Don’t Turn Your Back On The WolfPack!!!
Real Fan Five Week 3 Recap
Unprecedented Start For “Real Fan 5” Football Picks
Three Consecutive Weeks Were 4-1!! New York, Washington, and the Under with San Francisco vs Arizona! The Utah Utes outright at a half empty Big House were unstoppable! Our only loss last week was a backdoor last second cover by UVA over BYU.
The Goals Have Been Exceeded Were Going To Keep Rolling!!!
Real Fan Five Week 3 Picks
Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are flying high with two consecutive weeks of comeback victories. While the Washington Redskins have struggled with rookie head coach Jay Gruden’s offensive system.
Of course Robert Griffin III will be replaced after his injury for the foreseeable future by Kirk Cousins. KC1 probably fits the Gruden scheme better but can’t match the athleticism or play-making of RG3.
The Redskins rushing attack led by Alfred Morris should control the pace with their offensive lineman winning the battle down in the trenches. The Eagles offensive line is banged up and they have a notorious reputation for playing poorly Against The Spread in Philly.
Bottom line; The Eagles have led their opponents a total of six plays in their first two games. Besides being well coached the Bird-gang defense has not been able to stop anyone. Redskins should win this one straight up so take the 6.5pts in this divisional rivalry.
Pick: Washington +6.5
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
The San Francisco 49ers should be an angry bunch after an epic collapse Sunday night to the Chicago Bears. The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a huge road win against the New York Giants.
The Cardinals are waiting to see if Carson Palmer can get feeling back in his shoulder, after Drew Stanton stepped into keep their offense rolling in his absence. Meanwhile the Cardinals defense is rolling again even with the departing linebacker Karlos Dansby to the Cleveland Browns.
Despite the second half meltdown, the 49ers still have one of the most formidable defenses in the league who will be ready to give Drew Stanton a hard day if Carson Palmer sits. This is a crucial NFC West divisional game between opponents that are very familiar with each other’s style of play. No surprises in this game, it will be hard hitting and scoring points will be hard to come by.
Bottom line; Defense rules in the NFC West expect both of teams to bring the pain.
Pick: Under 42
Temperatures Will Be Rising, But Scoring Stays Low!!!!
Houston Texans vs New York Giants
Pick: Giants +3
The New York Giants are the worst team in the league no one not even G-Men fans are arguing! The Texans are riding an opposite wave being the surprise team of the year. Of course these were just week 2 conclusions.
The Giants find themselves 0-2 after losses to the very talented Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals. The Texans defense is still very capable of wreaking havoc but are coming off a season where their record earned them the the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Matt Schaub’s departure from Houston and arrival of Ryan Fitzpatrick does not address the biggest problem they have with the quarterback position. For New York no matter who’s the offensive coordinator Eli Manning can’t stop throwing the ball to his opponent. But Eli still has two Super Bowl wins, one more than his big brother Peyton.
Bottom Line: This game represents the perfect opportunity for The Giants to break on through to the winning side. Tom Coughlin should have his team focused, and ready to keep this game close which has been the NFL trend this season. Take the 3 points with New York at home against an opponent who is halfway to their total wins from last season.
Pick: Giants +3
They Might Still Be Giants!!!!
Virginia Cavaliers vs BYU Cougars
The Brigham Young University Cougars have been very impressive, they started the season with a steer for dinner courtesy of the Texas Longhorns in Austin. Heisman hopeful Taysom Hill has been running and throwing all over opponents.
The Cougars defense is young but seems to be learning fast on the job.
Virginia seems to have finally lived up to their potential on defense and 5th year coach Mike London has this team playing with a lot of confidence after upsetting the Louisville Cardinals.
Bottom line; The Cougars have too much for the Cavaliers. Provo, Utah is one of the toughest places to play in the country. Virginia finds themselves poised for a letdown, traveling cross country to play a more talented team.
BYU Cougars -14
The Cavaliers may hang around for awhile but Taysom Hill overwhelm their defense. Rise and Shout Go BYU Cougars!
Utah Utes vs Michigan Wolverines
Brady Hoke seat is hotter than the leather seats of a jeep in Arizona at high noon in summer. Utah might not be in the upper-echelon of the Pac12 but they are a very dangerous team. The Utes are coming off a bye after their huge victory at home in Salt Lake City against the Fresno State Bulldogs.
Utah has a balanced offensive strategy with speed at receiver. The defense and special teams are sound in there schemes as well. The Wolverines offense looks completely lost under new offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier and last week the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame exposed the defense.
Bottom line; Maize and Blue Country is in full panic mode. They have an underwhelming quarterback in Devon Gardner, a lack of talent at the skilled positions, and a team that plays like the coaches current status which is in way over his head!
Utah Utes +4.5
You might want to sprinkle a little on the Utes money line on this one! No Victors Up North Only Losers!!!
All the prep work we did over the summer is paying off. We went 4-1 for the second consecutive week!
That’s An 8-2 Start For Our Real Fans!
Remember Real Fan 5 is our weekly five best football bets!
Working very hard to continue this success with even deeper analysis and real time updates for every pick!Now that we have seen all these teams a couple times, there is plenty of noise and overreaction that we can use to our advantage.
Real Fan 5 Week 3 Picks Are Coming Soon Stay Connected To InTheBook By Following Us On Twitter @WithAnOhioBias Watch For #WAOBInTheBook
As Always Go With Luck!
REAL FAN FIVE PICKS WEEK 2
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
The Detroit Lions visit North Carolina coming off a win versus a bad New York Giants team at Ford Field on Monday Night Football. Last week the Carolina Panthers and backup quarterback Derek Anderson disposed easily of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. SuperCam aka Cam Newton is healthy enough to return and lead the Panthers passing attack. Rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is the real deal and the defense led by newly found guilty of domestic assault Greg Hardy, will be taking his aggression out on actual men come Sunday.
The Lions secondary is beat up and there lack of discipline still is there biggest Achilles heal under new coach Jim Caldwell.
Bottom line: Don’t think very highly of Detroit or the whole State North of Ohio! Emotion aside 15% of games land on a 3 pt margin of victory. Make sure you get on the right side of that 3.
—Carolina Panthers -2.5—
Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers
—San Diego Chargers +6—
The Super Bowl Champs came out opening night raised a banner and then put a beat down on the Green Bay Packers in front of the 12th man. The San Diego Chargers are coming off a tough loss to the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football.
The Chargers have so many positives in this match-up. For starters The Seahawks aren’t quite the juggernaut on the road as they are in the Emerald City. Facing a rarely seen AFC opponent in their home stadium is a perfect let down spot for a team that has been über focused since last season Championship run.
San Diego is no slouch of an opponent. Led the call on #WAOB NFL preview show with many NFL pundits having the Chargers as a viable playoff contender. The Bolts much improved on defense and still have the fiery Philip Rivers at quarterback. It will take the Chargers best effort to win, but expect them to be ready for the Legion of Boom, Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch and Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson.
Bottom line: Buy low and sell high. There is definitely value on the Chargers catching 6 at home.
—San Diego Chargers +6—
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
—Kansas City Chiefs +13—
The Denver Broncos started fast with a big win on Sunday Night Football against the Indianapolis Colts. The Kansas City Chiefs go into Mile High Stadium licking their wounds from a week one loss to the Tennessee Titans. The Chiefs, a team who has rookie Deanthony Thomas, veteran Eric Berry and Center Eric Kush all nursing injuries already combined with the loss of linebacker Derrick Johnson for entire season.
But the NFL is a very reactionary league, so these factors are reflected in the number (-13) for this match-up. When any team loses automatic reaction is the sky’s falling and of course winning games makes you the toast of the town. Perception is a big factor in the market and if you can stay out of the noise you can use this to your advantage.
The Chiefs are not as bad as they looked versus the Titans. This is largely the same roster that made the playoffs a year ago minus Brandon Flowers with above mentioned injuries, but was a team who gave Denver all sorts of fits in both meetings. It’s a divisional game between two bitter rivals that have no love loss for each other. The Chefs will get their big wide receiver Dwayne Bowe back from his one game suspension.
Bottom line, 13 is way too many points to be giving to regular season guru Chiefs Coach Andy Reid coming off a loss. Denver is good, but 13 is a line usually reserved for the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars and St Louis Rams.
Denver probably wins this but give me those points on a team that wouldn’t be shocked to see win outright.
Georgia Bulldogs vs South Carolina Gamecocks
–South Carolina Gamecocks +5—
Before the season we had talked about this game as potentially determining the SEC east. Then an #AggieBomb dropped on William-Brice Stadium in the first game to start the College Football Season.
Texas A&M Aggies team led by surprise freshman phenom quarterback Kenny Hill went into Columbia and torched the South Carolina Gamecocks. Fortunately for South Carolina the Aggies reside in the West division of the SEC, so both the Gamecocks and Georgia Bulldogs come into this contest unblemished in their quests to play for an SEC title come December in Atlanta.
Georgia comes off a bye week following their big win at home between the hedges vs the Clemson Tigers. Don’t believe a bye week gives Georgia a real big advantage, in fact it could work against them as the Bulldogs could come out flat.
South Carolina doesn’t do anything flashy on either sides of the ball. They Gamecocks are a grinding team who will be galvanized with return of Heisman hopeful running back Mike Davis. They are a veteran team with fourteen returning starters that has beat Georgia 3 of the last 4 meetings with the lone loss coming last year. So motivation should not be an issue for the Gamecocks
The biggest advantage that South Carolina has over Georgia will be the headsets on the sidelines. The Head Ball Coach Steve Spurrier has owned the Bulldogs dating back to his days leading the Florida Gators.
As for Georgia Head Coach Mark Richt there aren’t too many coaches that have as much talent with nothing to really show for it since Ohio State’s John Cooper. Mark Richt has a superstar in Todd Gurley but the question remains can the Coop of the SEC funnel this talent into success for Georgia.
Bottom Line, Georgia is the more talented team but the Head Ball Coach will have his boys ready to play. These two teams are very familiar with each other. Taking the better coach, and the more desperate Gamecocks bent on a revenge at home with 5 points.
—South Carolina Gamecocks +5—
“The Fighting Gamecocks Lead The Way, Let’s Give A Cheer, Carolina Is Here”
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Thursday Night Football, is easily the match-up with the two most repulsive teams in the NFL. A Pittsburgh football team with a quarterback no father wants to see their daughter pass by on the way to the bathtroom. Then a Charm City Football Team who have two guys named Ray that have probably assaulted more men and women than they have Super Bowl rings.
Coupled with Baltimore being the final resting place for Art Modell who stole a city’s symbol of working class pride for many many years.
Football is a game that each man on the roster must share the same direction and focus in order for success. Distractions of any kind take away from that goal. Which brings us to the Baltimore Ravens. It’s gonna be very tough deflecting Ray Rice questions, not to mention the mental impact on the players that were friends with him his entire Ravens career.
The Baltimore Ravens just came off a very physical contest with AFC North divisional rival Cincinnati Bengals. Baltimore on a short week is still a good team. They have much more of a vertical threat than in years past and the defense led by Terelll Suggs is solid.
The Pittsburgh Steelers who dominated the first half match-up against the Cleveland Browns. Should be focused after getting manhandled by the Browns in the second half where they eek’d out a victory at Heinz Field. These two teams are very evenly matched and always seem to play close games.
Bottom line: I see no way possible the Ravens will be prepared for the Steelers even without Ray Rice dismissal still would be taking the points. But Ray Rice Did Beat His Wife so give me the points and begrudgingly Go Black N Yellow! —Steelers +3—
Dont Mistake It, Pittsburgh Still Sucks!
Week 2 of the 2014 college football season offered little in the form of marquee matchups, save for a west coast showdown in Eugene that saw Oregon emerge victorious over Michigan State, 46-27. Oregon’s win kept the Ducks at 6/1 to claim the 2015 college football championship at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas (formerly the LVH), but there were several notable schools who weren’t so fortunate.
click here for full article from National Football Post and follow via twitter @JoeFortenbaugh
REAL FAN FIVE PICKS WEEK 2 COMING SOON!!!
Well friends WAOB In The Book is off to a great start with Real Fan Five Picks Week 1 results! Remember each week during the College and NFL season we’ll release the Real Fan Five, our weekly five best plays in the world of football.
What a crazy weekend! All the way till Sunday Night Football when Indianapolis back door covered over Denver and depending on what number your total was emotions ranged from disgust to euphoria.
We took a shot at a couple plus money dogs at UFC Fight Night 50 at Foxwoods which missed then whiffed on the Bears.
On the bright side four of the Real Fan Five winners were Packers/Seahawks over, USC, Notre Dame and the Bengals. Hope you guys shared in our Week 1 success!
Saddle Up and Get Ready! We’ll be releasing our 5 football picks throughout the week so keep checking back for the Real Fan Five Week 2 Picks! As Always Go With Luck!
REAL FAN FIVE PICKS WEEK 1
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Stakes are high in this Divisional rivalry when the Cincinnati Bengals go to M&T Bank Stadium to play the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals are poised for another run to top of the AFC North. Bengals new defensive coordinator Paul Guenther very happy to add a veteran starter Geno Atkins back to an already potent Cincinnati defense. Atkins the defensive tackle was out last year with a torn ACL. #97 presence stopping the run and relentless quarterback pressure gives Bengals an immediate defensive play-maker against the dirty birds offense.
On the other side of the ball Andy Dalton now has plenty of money and weapons. With second year running back Giovani Bernard and rookie Jeremy Hill looking to run wild this season. Also the Red Rifle has a lot of big targets to throw to down the field led by AJ Green, emerging star Mohamed Sanu, and catch everything Notre Dame Fighting Irish Tyler Eiffert.
The Ravens should bounce back this year after last season’s debacle. The Joe Flacco led offense adds Owen Daniels from the Texans, Panthers veteran trash talking possession receiver Steve Smith, and get Dennis Pitta back from injury These guys should open up more opportunities for both Torrey Smith and Ray Rice when available. Problem for the Crows this week is they won’t have Rice for the first 2 weeks who’s serving a suspension for beating up a woman.
Bottom line, this should be a close game but I give the advantage across the board to The Bengals, however slight.
USC at Stanford
PAC12 clash of the California titans this week as the USC Trojans go to the Farm and take on the Stanford Cardinals. In the last four meetings between theses two programs each outcome has been decided by 8 points or less. Southern Cal has athleticism and speed on both sides of the ball. Stanford Quarterback Kevin Hogan has been tested and has command of David Shaw’s offense, problem is he’s behind five new starters on the offensive line.
Nobody will want yo play the Cardinals in the second half of the season as I think this group will gel quickly. Stanford also has lost key personnel on the defensive side of the ball. The coaching matchup is a push both David Shaw and Steve Sarkisian are well respected football minds.
The biggest edge will be on the sideline though, two words “Song Girls”.
Bottom line, Really think USC has enough to go into Palo Alto and upset Stanford but gladly take the field goal.
Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears
Expecting big things from the Chicago Bears this year! They have revamped that defensive line and continue with an arsenal of weapons on offense for Jay Cutler.
Whereas the Buffalo Bills defense having a change at coordinator, concerns on offense, and maintaining the health of starters at their skilled positions. EJ Manual appears to have regressed in the preseason and Sammy Watkins is still nursing sore ribs. The Bills should be capable of running the ball with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. But getting down big early will not be conducive to a strong ground game. I look for Marc Tresman’s Bears offense to start quickly and leave The Bills in the dust. If this line moves to 7.5 I’d pass.
Bear Pride Bear Dignity Bear Down!
Michigan Wolverines vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
—Notre Dame -3.5—
Both Notre Dame and Michigan were victorious week 1 with drubbings of lesser teams. This game comes down to quarterback play. Expect lots of points to be scored and whichever quarterback doesn’t make a big mistake will give their team a huge chance to win.
The biggest mismatch is not on the field but rather on the sideline. Brady Hoke has not impressed with game planning or making adjustments during games. Brian Kelly however puts all his emphasis on pregame preparation.
Should be a great game which will end the longest rivalry in College Foorball. Bottom line there’s value here. Truly believe the loss of the Notre Dame players to suspension has been blown out of proportion and it can’t hurt having Touchdown Jesus on your side.
UFC FIGHT NIGHT FOXWOODS PICKS
Parabens Jacare Souza
Won Third Round Submission Via Guillotine Choke
Congrats To Ben “Dancing Bear” Rothwell
Won Via TKO With A Broken Arm
Jacare Souza (185 lbs) vs Gegard Mousasi (186 lbs) Middleweight
Kinda split on this match with both fighters coming in streaking, Jacare Souza 3-0 since joining the UFC and Gegard Mousasi 2-1 in his last three fights. But folks they don’t call it gambling for nothing, so were swinging for the fences in this main event. Souza the Brazilian will look to take this fight to the ground where his opponent has shown vulnerability then using his jujitsu to stay there. This will avoid the great striking of Mousasi which is his greatest advantage. The bet is Mousasi who’s underdog +250 he stays aggresive and upright and wins the fight!!!
Alistair Overeem (245 lbs) vs Ben Rothwell (268 lbs) Heavyweight
The prop is the way to go with the heavyweight showdown which features the return of Alistair Overeem versus Ben Rothwell. The Reem is now with Craig Jackson’s Camp who of course is home to Jon “Bones” Jones Light Heavyweight Champion. Alistair formerly known as The Demolition Man is a huge favorite over Rothwell. So everyone knows Overeem wins, it’s just how and when. Late second round stoppage due to TKO, from the ground and pound expert Overeem is our prediction and the play!
There’s a +600 for win by submission were sticking with our above bet, but Overeem is very skilled at executing Rear Naked Chokeholds on bigger slower fighters! Overeem is motivated with a possible title shot with Cain Velasquez he might be trying to win this in grand fashion. #JustSayin
“It’s inevitable that, if all these states are broke, that there will be legalized sports betting in more states than Nevada and we will ultimately participate in that,” said Silver, 52.
Silver, who has been with the NBA for 22 years and replaced former Commissioner David Stern in February, said that he doesn’t have any moral issue with sports betting. The league, which already allows teams to create marketing deals with casinos, would further profit from the legalization of sports wagering outside Nevada, he said.
“If you have a gentleman’s bet or a small wager on any kind of sports contest, it makes you that much more engaged in it,” Silver said. “That’s where we’re going to see it pay dividends. If people are watching a game and clicking to bet on their smartphones, which is what people are doing in the United Kingdom right now, then it’s much more likely you’re going to stay tuned for a long time.”
Ready To Roll For Football Season!
Today We Proudly Introduce The “Real Fan Five”
We’ll be releasing one pick a day during the week . These will include combinations of both NCAA and NFL games. Due to the holiday we begin now.
First Play Is Thursday Night NFL Kickoff In Seattle
—Packers at Seahawks over 45—
With Aaron Rogers and Eddie Lacy, the Packers are a very balanced offensive ball club.
Mick McCarthy’s Packers have the personnel and schemes to put up points even against the the league’s best defense “The Legion of Boom”.
The uncertainty of how officials will call the defensive holding is a factor that can only hurt both defenses but help our pick.
I feel the officiating has not been accounted for in the number based on regular season game penalties previously neglected prior to the new rule changes.
The Seahawks should be successful on offense with the same game plan that won them a Super Bowl. Which is release “The Beast” Marshawn Lynch with their running attack, especially with BJ Raji not active for the game. Also Russell Wilson will be the same poised quarterback that even under pressure, can extend plays and make the big throws.
Both teams have plenty of play-makers opposite of the offense, so look for some takeaways, and defensive scoring.
Big stage, NFL Opening night game, and this league is doing everything they can for the offense. I don’t play a lot of overs, but every once in awhile the stars align.
“Under the Radar”
College Football Season is upon and the NFL is one week away. This is one of the best times of year for a bettor as there is a lot of speculation combined with misinformation. If you have done your homework you can find good value that won’t be there in 3 weeks when everybody has gotten to see those teams on a hot streak.
A perfect example is The Ohio State Buckeyes. Perception out there is that without Braxton Miller the Buckeyes go from National Title hopeful to just another contender in a very mediocre B1G conference.
We here in Ohio know JT Barrett was a highly touted recruit among experts . Also factor in the tremendous upgrade with Team Speed that Urban Meyer has with a third recruiting class in Columbus.
With that being said there are some other factors working for Ohio State;
1. Schedule: they will still be favored in every game except the trip to East Lansing. That would have been the case with Miller.
2. Conference: The BIG10 is still a power 5 conference and an undefeated BIG10 champion will almost certainly be 1 of the 4 teams to play for a National Title.
3. QB: the position is now an immediate impact position with the success of Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston so early in their careers.
4. The HC: Urban Meyer is arguably the best Head Coach in college football. Meyer has shown the ability to tailor offenses to his Quarterback’s strengths as he did with Chris Leak and Tim Tebow. Not to mention the guy is a cover machine going 83-48-3 Against The Spread or 63%
Look for the Buckeyes to have great value this season as the rest of the country has written Ohio State off. I’ll be on Buckeyes weekly. I’m on them to go over 10.5 wins and in on the Buckeyes to Win The National Championship at 50/1. Shhhhhhhh
No picks in a while, well don’t give up on us just yet. WithAnOhioBias has been hard at work preparing for the most profitable Season. Baseball is gearing up for the final playoff push then Football, Hockey and Basketball set to return there’s a virtual smorgasbord of games to handicap for you.
We will be getting back to releasing moves on the site and via Twitter with much more consistency .
We Play What We Post!
Therefore what is promoted through WAOB is how we wager, so we will win together and lose together.
Please Don’t Hesitate to Leave Comments Or Questions
Join the conversation via Twitter @WithAnOhioBias Use #WAOBInTheBook
We look forward to sharing our opinions and positions on sporting events.
As Always Go with luck!
All Past Recommended Wagers from In The Book Gambling Minute Segments on Podcast
Show 1: thunder/clippers under 213.5 L 122-105
Show 1.5: Rangers/Pens U5 L 4-2
Show 2: LA Kings ml -130 L 2-0
Show 3: Heat -2 W 87-83
Show 4: Rangers/Canadians U5 W 3-1
Show 5: no game pick. Rangers in 7(out on a limb pick) no play only individual games count for record.
Show 6: no game pick previewed the US Open and some odds for some guys
2-3 from Podcast Picks
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In The Book Archives
Picks From 5 – 2014 to 8 – 2014
Not Wagering Either Fight Night But If We Were Here’s Who We Favor and Why
1-2 Thank Thailes Laietes!!
Great 1st Round KO By Dos Anjos & Congrats to Jordan Mein
UFC Fight Night Tulsa
Benson Henderson vs Dos Anjos Featherweight 155lbs Main Event 5 rounds
Prop Bet: Fight Won’t Go Distance 5 Rounds +145
Pretty sure Benson “Bendo” Henderson wins this fight the question can he finish Dos Anjos. Bendo finished Rustam Khabilov, so here’s hoping he helps folks win on the prop with a nice submission within 5 rounds! MMAHellYeah
This will be slugfest between Pyle and Mein, with Fight of The Night Potential. Both aggressive fighters but we go with Quicksand and his experience within the Octagon against names like Matt Brown, Rick Story, Rory Mcdonald, and Jake Ellenberger. We don’t like the prop of fight going the duration at +170. Pyle wins with some good old fashioned ground and pound in the 2nd round! MMAHellYeah
Francis Carmont is favored even though he’s very spectacular victory his opponents don’t match Leites list. Leites has fought in the Octagon against Martin Kapmann, Nate Marquardt, and of course the Hall of Famer Anderson “The Spider” Silva. Really believes Leites outclasses Carmont who will rely on his striking, Leite’ss skill and ground game will be the difference to help him win this bout! MMAHellYeah!
Results Are In 0-2 on Predictions
For UFC Fight Night 48
Congrats To The Count Michael Bisping He Says He Wants Luke Rockhold, wait to you see the comments flying between these two guys, Whoa!!!
This Is Case Of You Have To See The Other Guy!!! It will be some time before Cung Le will be in another movie or on film unless he’s an extra on The Walking Dead!
Congrats To Tyron Woodley, redeems himself after bad showing in Vancouver!
And The UFC Octagon Girls Say Goodbye From Macao!!
UFC Fight Night Macao
Michael Bisping vs Cung Le Middleweight 185 lbs
The Count vs The Hollywood Action Star
Happy to see The Count comeback from his eye injury to return to fighting. Cung Le the 2008 Strikeforce Middleweight Champ who you might no better as Marshall Law from the Tekken Live Action Movie, or the Bronze Lion in the Rza’s Man of the Iron Fist “Wutang”. Clearly Le had taken a Jim Brown style track to his MMA career. Both fighters whether do to Hollywood calling or injury have not fought regularly over the last 3 years. Which makes this fight unpredictable but not impossible to predict. The Count is favored because he’s the bigger fighter in stature and has a reach advantage. Bisping establishes his jab inside that Octagon like a prize fighter but against Chael Sonnen his takedown defense and poor attitude towards grappling didn’t serve him well in that defeat. Bisping will try to stay outside to keep space between him and Le. If that is the strategy it will play into The Bronze Lion’s favor. His style of kicks coming from every angle and maybe one punch knockout out power shown in first round TKO of Rich Franklin can be the difference. Also Le’s wrestling background should take that space The Count needs to be successful away. If we were at the Venetian in Macao, definitely would be taking the underdog to win! #MMAHellYeah
UFC Fight Night Macao Prelims
Elizabeth Phillips (4-2) vs Milana Dudieva (10-3) Women’s Bantamweight
This one is based off of the look in Elizabeth Phillips eyes during the weigh-ins and physically she looked shredded. Dudieva the Russian Striker will stand toe to toe in the middle of Octagon throwing with Phillips if she lets her . After Elizabeth Phillips lost by a close decision in last fight against Valerie LeTourneau this was after taking the fight as a 10-day replacement. With a full Training Camp at Sik-Jitsu in northeast Spokane, she will motivated to finish this fight strong. Elizabeth can take advantage when Dudieva punches herself out for a submission, but not too much Rope-A-Dope or could be KO Victory for Russia. If we had found a good prop bet would have choose Phillips by submission but once again not wagering just Phillips to Win! #MMAHellYeah
“Golf is a game in which one endeavors to control a ball with implements ill adapted for the purpose.”-Woodrow Wilson
The PGA Championship takes place starting Thursday at Valhalla GC in Louisville Kentucky. Tiger Woods participation is still in doubt but former PGA champion Keegan Bradley’s status is not.
–4 round match: Keegan Bradley -115 over Henrik Stenson–
Keegan has been playing well going into this tourney and Stenson has not. Bradley had a good showing at last week WGC event finishing in a tie for 4th. While Stenson finished in the bottom half of the field. Keegs should be a factor come Sunday afternoon and I wouldn’t be surprised if Stenson, #4 in the world, is too. I’m looking for value though with Bradley’s track record at this event and with Stenson’s recent inconsistency the value in my mind is squarely on Keegan.
Kluber did his part last night. Unfortunately Simon and the rest of the Reds pitchers killed our under. The right team won so I won’t complain too much. Turning to another total tonight. Let’s go Smalls.
–Twins/Padres under 7.5–
Since a rough major league debut, Jesse Hahn has been dominant for San Diego. The righty is looking to win his fourth straight start.
Hahn, who is 7-2 with a 2.01 ERA, began his career giving up 4 runs on two homers in 3 2-3 innings of a 4-1 loss to Pittsburgh on June 3, but has surrendered only 8 earned and no HRs over 50 innings. Opposing hitters have been held to a .182 average and have struck out 54 times in 53 2-3 innings.
The Twins turn to Phil Hughes who is 10-8 with 4.12 ERA. The righty posted a 7.20 ERA over a three-start stretch before giving up just three runs in six innings of a 3-2 loss at Kansas City. He allowed seven hits and struck out seven without a walk in seven innings of a 2-0 victory at San Diego on May 21. Hughes has dropped three straight, but the Twins have scored only two runs with him on the mound.
“The way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until it stops rolling and then pick it up.”-Bob Uecker
–Blue Jays +125–
The Jays look to continue their winning ways vs Boston. They took three of four from The Red Sox last week to improve to 7-3 in the season series, with Dickey (8-10, 4.04 ERA) beating Clay Buchholz in last Wednesday’s 6-4 win in Toronto. Those two starters will meet again in the first of three at Fenway.
Dickey looks to continue his success vs Boston. He is 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox this year. He has one walk and 11 strikeouts in those outings.
The Sox go with Buchholz who is 5-6 with a 5.50 ERA on the year. He is looking to bounce back after he lost for the first time in three starts Wednesday, allowing five runs in six innings. He walked four and struck out one.
The Blue Jays have won the last five times he has started against them at Fenway, going 0-3 with a 4.18 ERA in those starts. Buchholz is 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA in three games against Toronto this year.
“On my tombstone just write, ‘The sorest loser that ever lived’.”-Earl Weaver
–Orioles ml -105–
I second that quote, but in the marathon that is a MLB season you have to learn to take the losses in stride. So after dropping 2 in a row we dust ourselves off and keep grinding.
Pitching has been huge in the Orioles’ recent success on their West Coast swing. The AL East-leading Orioles are looking for a winning road trip with a third straight win over the Mariners on Saturday.
Bud Norris who is 8-6 with a 3.78 ERA on the season, won his third straight road start by allowing one earned run and striking out 8 in a win over the Los Angeles Angels on Monday. Norris has won five of six starts and has a 2.37 ERA in that span.
Seattle sends Chris Young to the bump. Young is 8-6 and a 3.22 ERA, but is 0-2 in his last three outings despite a 2.45 ERA over the past seven. He’s had four straight quality starts despite allowing 6 home runs.
Young went 5-1 with a 2.19 ERA in his first eight home starts, but since then is 0-2 with a 3.46 ERA at Safeco Field while the Mariners offense totaled one run.
“The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart”-Robert Green Ingersoll
–Rays/Red Sox under 6.5–
Tonight we get a look at two desperate teams who really don’t like each other. Two teams looking to make a last ditch miracle run at the playoffs.
With how David Ortiz has been mashing the ball and his feud with David Price, the Red Sox are sure to miss his presence. The Sox slugger is questionable after tweaking his back on a check swing last night.
Price who has been deflecting trade rumors all year is 10-7 and a 3.06 ERA. He faces the Red Sox tonight for the first time since beaning Ortiz earlier this year sparking a bench-clearing brawl in the fourth inning of Tampa Bay’s 3-2, 10-inning loss at Fenway Park in May. The brawl goes back to last years playoffs when Price wasn’t happy with Papi posing after a HR.
The Sox will counter Price with Jon Lester (10-7, 2.50 ERA) who has also had to put up with ongoing trade rumors just as Price has had to.
The All-Star can’t be blamed for Boston’s struggles, going 4-0 with a 0.85 ERA in his last seven starts – all Boston wins. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in three of his last four starts. Lester has won his last three against Tampa Bay, including Game 1 of last year’s playoff series. In his only start vs the Rays this season, he allowed 4 hits with 12 strikeouts in seven innings of a 4-0 win in Fenway.
President Lyndon B. Johnson
Indians ml -110
Tomorrow is now and the Indians better start winning or we will be selling next week. Tribe opens up a huge 4 game series tonight at KC.
Corey Kluber takes the mound for game 1. He is 10-6, 2.95 ERA on the season and red hot lately going 4-1 with a 1.96 ERA over his last five outings after winning 6-2 in the first game of Saturday’s DH.
Kansas City goes with Danny Duffy who is 5-10 with a 2.66 ERA. The left-hander has gone 1-5 in his last six starts despite a 2.41 ERA, receiving a combined four runs of support in those losses. Being left handed is usually an advantage for a starter, but not versus the Tribe who hit southpaws at a .271 clip which is second in all of baseball.
Pittsburgh goes with Vance Worley who makes his first start since a rough five-inning outing in St. Louis on July 8. The right-hander had given the rotation a shot in the arm going 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA in his previous four starts.
Dodgers are short handed with both Puig and Hanley Ramirez out with bruised hands after both were hit by pitches. Donny Baseball send Josh Beckett to the mound. The Dodgers decided to skip Beckett in his final start before the All-Star break because of a sore hip but he’s going to battle through after a cortisone injection alleviated some of the pain.
Beckett who is 6-5 with a 2.26 ERA was forced to leave his last start when he felt something in his left hip while running the bases.
“You can’t go home again” -Thomas Wolfe
–Phillies/Giants under 7–
It may never be the same when you come back to a team you once played for as it once was but, it can still be a successful homecoming.
Former Indian Cliff Lee is on the hill tonight for Philly but for how long is the question. Lee returns after being out for 2 months with an inflamed elbow. Consider this an audition tonight.
It’s a fun thought to romanticize Lee coming back to the Indians but his salary and the assets you would have to give up make this highly unlikely. More realistically I could see Lee playing out the year for another former team, the Mariners, who are in the market for another frontline starter.
Any way I look for Lee to, as Nuke LaLuche said, “announce his presence with authority” this evening. Lee has dominated the Giants, going 5-0 over six starts with a 0.88 ERA lifetime (his lowest against any team).
The Giants counter with Ryan Vogelsong who is 5-7 with 3.86 ERA. He has thrown the ball well as of late. The righty has a 2.92 ERA over his last four starts. However he lost all four receiving zero run support, literally no runs.
“If you don’t love the Dodgers, there’s a good chance you may not get into heaven”-Tom Lasorda
We are rolling with Snoop, Tommy and most importantly Clayton Kershaw
–Dodgers -1.5 runs at -110
Sunday Night Baseball comes to us from St Louis tonight and the matchup couldn’t be better for Los Angeles. Kershaw who is 11-2 with a 1.78 ERA, has a bone to pick with Cards Skipper Mike Matheny who went with Adam Wainwright over Kershaw to start Tuesdays All-Star game. Matheny of course did the right thing by starting his guy, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a little extra fuel to the Dodgers fire.
The Cards counter with Carlos Martinez. The right hander is 2-4 and a 4.43 ERA. He will make his seventh straight start for St. Louis after 30 appearances out of the bullpen. He is 2-1 with a 4.13 ERA as a starter.
The Cards offense has been scuffling without Yadier Molina and his absence will also be felt defensively. The Cards this season have not fared we’ll vs lefties hitting just .235 (4th worst in baseball). Meanwhile on the flip side the Dodgers kill right handed pitching hitting .269 (4th best in baseball). Let’s go Dodgers, Tommy needs a win! We all need a win!
The Open Championship is upon us, also known as the British Open to us Yanks. Lefty brought the Claret Jug home stateside last year with his incredible Sunday charge.
Here’s a few guys at the top worth a look and some guys with value.
Favorites: -Rory McIlroy 14-1, needs to put together 4 solid rounds. -Henrik Stenson 20-1, under the radar top 5 player who finished top 5 last two years.
Value: -Rickie Fowler 40-1, played well last week at the Scottish Open. Has embraced links golf. -Angel Cabrera 70-1, always seems to play well in the majors, but not so much this year. Word is he is playing well and is healthy. -Miguel Angel Jimenez 60-1, “The Mechanic” always seems to be at his best for the Open. With recent winners Darren Clarke and Ernie Els and the success of Tom Watson. Could it be his year.
4 Round Match: -Tiger +145 over Lefty, feel like you will never get better value on Big Cat than right now. Finally healthy, and ready to challenge. Won the Open here in ’06 and was around on Sunday last year at Muirfield.
UFC Fight Night 45 Atlantic City – Main Event – Donald Cerrone vs Jim Miller
–Cavs to win the title 4/1
I know, I know, but if ever there was a day to mark out and bet like a fan today is that day. I can not endorse this play as a value bet or even a smart bet. I’d personally have em closer to 10/1, but today I’m endorsing for the first time a bet I know is the opposite of sharp. That being said I’m throwing some lunch money at it to celebrate and mark the day. Welcome home King
“It’s simple, if it jiggles, it’s fat”-Arnold Schwarzenegger
I’m not one to throw stones when I’m sitting in a glass house, but if the shoe fits… Somehow the bigger and older he gets the better he gets. Hmmmm
Yes, we are really taking the Mets as a favorite over one of the best teams in the NL, the Braves. Fatolo errrr Bartolo Colon looks to give the Mets the sweep of the Bravos after being swept themselves last week in Hotlanta. Colon who is 8-7 with 4.04 ERA has throttled Atlanta giving up just 3 runs in 14 innings this season. Plus you get to watch him hit.
The Braves have followed up a 9 game winning streak with 4 losses in a row in which they’ve gone 5 for 38 with RISP. Atlanta will counter with Aaron Harang who is 8-6 with 3.67 ERA and is trying to win his 4th straight. Not sure which hurler will have more “juice” but I’m saying it’s our old buddy Bart.
The Snakes have been raking. D-backs rookie phenom David Peralta has come up from AA and has been impressive.
Peralta was hitting .297 with an OPS of .839 in the minors. Since then he hit safely in eight straight to start to kick off his career and is hitting .331 in 32 games. The rook looks to extend his 9 game hitting streak (in which he’s hitting .467)tonight against the Fish. Meanwhile Vidal Nuno who went 2-5 with a 5.42 ERA in 14 starts and three relief appearances for the Bombers but will be looking to make a good first impression on his new teammates. As for the Marlins they throw some guy named Hand.
Been a profitable few days for WAOBInTheBook and we turn our attention to NoCal to keep it rolling.
“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday’s success or put its failures behind and start over again. That’s the way life is, with a new game every day, and that’s the way baseball is.”- Mr. Bob Feller
Today’s opportunity for us is to build on last nights success, as we went 3-1 on the UFC 175 card. We turn our attention back to bases for Sunday Night Baseball.
–Rays ml -115
Lifetime Price is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA in five starts against the Tigers.
Here’s the thing about MMA wagering, prop bets like (number of rounds, KO or decision, etc…)are a lot of times a better way to find more reasonable odds than straight up decision based or ML wagers. So here’s my predictions and where my money will be tonight.
Urijah Faber vs Alex Caceras Bantamweight 135 lbs
This is the first time in a longtime Faber has not fought on the ppv card. The fight will be on fox sports 1 with the prelim card. Faber needs a good showing to stay relevant within his own camp (Team Alpha Male) and even more importantly in the UFC. Caceras has a chance to win by submission, but I think Faber vs Caceras goes the distance – Faber by split decision
Matt Mitrione vs Stefan Struve Heavyweight 265-238 lbs – Gonna Go With Mitione Upset Pick of the night! Struve The Skyscraper has the length to keep Mitrione at bay with stand up. Struve also has the edge with experience, but hopefully Mitrione has learned from Roy Nelson to literally throw his weight around in the octagon. Mitrione should strike well inside with uppercuts and wrestling will help get fight to the ground. Where Mitrione then Wins by KO via Ground and Pound! Let’s Go Titties!
Uriah Hall vs Thiago Santos Middleweight 185 lbs – Uriah Hall under 3 rounds by KO or Submission. Hall will finish this fight, same premise as Faber even though on ppv card Hall performance will determine relevancy of his career.
Ronda Rousey vs Alexis Davis Womens Bantamweight 135 lbs -Rousey first round. Guessing she’ll probably get Davis by armbar. Anyway she is to aggressive for Davis. Its extremely important for Ronda to continue her dominance, which she is well aware and will come out with that kind of performance worthy of her UFC Championship Reign.
Chris Weidman vs Lyoto Machida Middleweight 185lbs
You’ll see the video of Weidman KO Silva to win championship during promo cuts for UFC 175. Don’t ever like to use term lucky in fighting but Silva showed this guy no respect and was playing around, got what he deserved with KO. As for Weidman he literally has fought nobody as he has risen to be Middleweight champion by taking fights to replace the #1 contenders who kept dropping off of cards due to injury. When it comes to Machida you don’t know if we will see the tenacious aggression that has earned him the nickname the Dragon. Machida’s jujitsu should give him technical edge against strength and wrestling of Weidman. True MMA fans will expect Machida with the upset by submission. That’s if the Dragon shows up. Honestly wouldn’t bet main card but, if I were would be taking Machida for the upset. Should be a fantastic night of fighting.
#COL +190 : Today’s play is Colombia +190 to advance. Brazil on five days rest after the most dramatic win of the World Cup showed mental fatigue in over time against Chile.
First 45 minutes Colombia comes out like a gringo with a bag on vacation All keyed up. Brazil will respond but as the pressure to win at home is only going to mount as the seconds tick, Ghost of Pablo Escobar will loom large and push #COL to victory.
At almost 2/1 its a huge dog but like the Beautiful Senoritas of this country We love +2’s #VivaLaColombia
“Booze, broads and bullshit. If you got all that, what else you need?”-Harry Caray. How bout some gambling?!?
Mets/Pirates under 8: This is the last of 4 between these two clubs. Our old (41) buddy Bartolo has lit up the Buccos going 4-1 in six starts against Pittsburgh (41-40) with a 1.22 ERA. That includes a 5-0 victory May 28 in which he struck out a season-high nine over 7 1-3 innings. Edison Volquez hurls for the Pirates and is looking to bounce back he is 5-6, 4.35 ERA this season. A couple of regulars will be missing including David Wright of the Mets and Starling Marte of the Buccos.
“Guys ask me, don’t I get burned out? How can you get burned out doing something you love? I ask you, have you ever got tired of kissing a pretty girl?”-Tommy Lasorda
Dodgers/Cards over 6.5: Based on the way these two clubs have been playing each other (1-0 and 3-1 scores) in the 1st two games of this series I believe this total is short and should be 7. I know it’s only a half of a run, but it’s a big half a run. Lance Lynn has pitched well after a tough stretch in May. Greinke has struggled as of late going 1-3 with a 4.40 era in five starts. Both teams are good hitting. We fade perception here to see if we can get back on track.
“The spirit, the will to win, and the will to excel are the things that endure. These qualities are so much more important than the events that occur.”-Vince Lombardi.
In other words we stay the course even when shit doesn’t go our way. We went 1-0 yesterday.
Indians ml -115: Tribe off a win and a day off look to take the 1st of 3 in Seattle tonight. Bauer is coming off a soso start but look for him and a rested bullpen and some hot bats to get one here over the overvalued Chris Young.
Americans play to win at all times. I wouldn’t give a hoot and hell for a man who lost and laughed. That’s why Americans have never lost nor ever lose a war. -George S. Patton
This match isn’t exactly war, but it is one of the most important matches in our country’s history. The excitement around ‘Merica is at an all time high for soccer. Stand up and prepare to hold your breath for 180 minutes Thurs morning.
“Right now, I need to worry about us, not the Rangers. We need to do some regrouping now”.-Ken Hitchcock
Gonna take Hitch’s advice and reboot. We’ve gotten beat up the last two days going 0-4. As I’ve said before baseball is a grind and no need to force it when it’s not there. Lean Reds ml again if you’re looking to fade me. Gonna put on the foil and come back tmrw fighting like the Hanson brothers. Back in the morning with a USA/Nazi pick and some bases.
“More than any other American sport, baseball creates the magnetic, addictive illusion that it can almost be understood”- Thomas Boswell.
Thanks for nothing last night Lasorda. We backed up our 2-0 day with an 0-2 day to drop back 2 games under .500. Today we look to the Buckeye State and a solid trend to pick us up.
Reds ml -105: The Cubbies are scuffling. Hitting .168 in this most recent 3 game losing streak. Cubs have lost 18 of the last 20 against the Reds at Wrigley, batting just .217 and avg 3 runs per game. Chicago starter Jake Arrietta has been very good recently but so have the Reds bats. Mesoraco has homered in 4 straight. The Red Legs starter Homer Bailey has had very good success vs the Cubs, going 7-0 with a 3.08 era over his last 10 starts and that includes a 2.23 era and a 5-0 mark on the North Side.
Mariners/Red Sux under 7.5: Seattle has won 7 of 9 and they’re starters have been carrying the load with a 1.81 era. Trend of the week: Mariners (3-14-1 O/U) Seattle’s pitching staff has been as good as any in the majors over the past eight games, allowing exactly one run in five of the Mariners’ last eight games en route to a 6-2 record over that stretch. Seattle is 31-41-4 O//U for the season. Source Covers.
“Drink like a champion today!”-Ben Rothlisberger’s T-Shirt. We went 2-0 yesterday and got back to .500. So what better way to enjoy it than taking a cheap shot at my least favorite Buckeye with apologies to Desmond Howard. Got 2 more for ya so lets keep the momentum going.
Dodgers ml -125: This is a homecoming for Dodgers starter Zach Greinke. He has faced his old club 2 other times giving up only 2 runs in 15 1/3 innings. Greink is in the midst of another stand out season at 9-3 with a 2.57 era. The Royals come in having lost their last 4. Starter Jeremy Guthrie has never faced the Dodgers and is 0-4 in his last 5 home starts despite a solid 3.71 era. I also like that the Dodgers get an extra bat in the lineup in the AL park.
Rays/Pirates under 7.5: Volquez is coming off his worst loss of the season which is why I think this total is a little bit inflated. He’s 1-0 with a 3.65 era in 2 starts against the Rays. Tampa goes with righty Alex Cobb who is 2-5 but very solid 3.49 era and a career 3.16 era in interleague.
“We learn something everyday, and lots of times it’s that what we learned the day before was wrong”-Bill Vaughan. When it comes to sports no truer words have been said. Last night was one strange night in baseball. Time to bounce back!
Cards ml -145: Cards have lost 3 in a row and are looking to avoid losing 4 for the 1st time this year. Wainwright comes back after missing a start and he needs to do what an Ace is paid to do and that’s halting losing streaks. Cole Hamels has been great as of late and Phil’s have been playing better, but I’m going with the desperate home team.
Mets/Marlins under 7.5: Mets have a hard time scoring runs and the Fish who have won 13 of the last 18 at home vs the Mets also have a 1.14 era in the last 7 against the ‘Mazins. In 7 start this season Mets starter Jacob Degrom has been solid with a 4.39 era. Marlins starter Tom Kohler has been good too with a 3.84 era in 14 starts.
Germany/Ghana under 3 goals: The Germans have not fared to well in game 2 of recent tourneys losing to Croatia in the Euro ’08 and Serbia in the 2010 World Cup. Now I’m not saying the Germans will go down today against Ghana. However I do expect it to be tight as this is a huge game for Germany and essentially an elimination match for Ghana.
“The best laid plans of mice and men often go astray”. We took the collar yesterday, lost 2 and now sit at 10-10 to date. It’s a long season though and lots of opportunities! LEGGO
Rockies ml -105: Like the Rox at home here. They kill righties hitting .281 and leading the bigs. Meanwhile the Brew are in the middle of a 7 game roadie and Estrada leads the majors giving up 23 HRs. Coming off of getting no hit by Kersh the Rox bats should be ready to roll.
Royals ml -130: This play is all about “Big Game” James Shields. In his last 3 home starts he is 3-0 with a 1.80 era and has solid career numbers vs the M’s. Iwakuma has been throwing great for Seattle since his return from the DL. That being said the Royals have given Shields 6 or more runs in 8 of 11 starts. Putting his mark vs the ML at 10-1. Royals should be able to make it 11 of 12.
We’ve been on a good run hitting 6 of our first 8 Twitter games (knock on wood) and we are now 10-8 since we started. Tonight we are playing the same games but doing the opposite.
Padres/Ms over 7: this is simple. Both pitchers stink. No advanced metrics needed. This total is only 7 because the Padres can’t hit and it’s at Petco Park. Ms had been hitting well before running into Cashner last night. If this game was in Seattle it would be 8.5.
Jays ml -105: Ok! The Jays stats at Yankee stadium didn’t get any better last night and we profited from it. Now we get an inflated Yankee price in a game the Jays need more and have the much better pitcher in Hutchison. You should never make a play based on a team being due, but the Jays are really really due.
Padres/Mariners under 6: It was so sad yesterday to hear of the passing of the greatest hitter of my generation. The Padres are home tonight in what is sure to be a very somber setting. As far as the game goes. The Padres can’t hit (how ironic) and King Felix ain’t gonna help. The Ms have been hitting well but, Andrew Cashner has been nails all season with a 2.47 ERA in 11 starts. His efforts have been repaid by getting no run support hence his 2-6 record. This game has 3-1 written all over it.
Yankees ml -105: The Jays have now dropped 23 of the last 25 and 14 in a row in the Bronx. Buehrle has lost his last 2 starts and in his career he is 1-10 in 16 starts with a 6.02 ERA vs New York. Meanwhile Yankees rookie starter Chase Whitley is 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA.
Padres/M’s under 7.5: I love betting get away day unders and this is a good spot at a good number. Padres can’t hit and they hit lefties even worse. Elias has been solid for the M’s. Stults stinks but look for some regulars to get the day off before this series moves to SD for 2 more tomorrow night.
Reds ml -120: Cueto is the story here. In 2 starts against the Buccos this year he has given up 1 run and 4 hits in 2 CGs. He has a 15-4 career record with a 2.15 era in 23 starts including 9-2 with a 1.81 at PNC. Hopefully the day off has cooled McCutchens hot bat. Cumpton has been inconsistent.
Twins ml +145: Phil Hughes has been a human ATM this year for backers. He still is a little under the radar and the Red Sux at home are way overpriced. This is more of a value play at +145.
Royals ml +125: Royals have been swinging the bats well and Verlander has struggled all season. Saw some tape of his delivery from 2 years ago and this year and he his mechanics are all jacked up.
Dbacks ml -110: McCarthy has been pitching much better over his last few starts. The Brew lost 2 of 3 this weekend at home against the Reds.
Cubs +110: I usually don’t like to play a bad team on the road but Cubs won 2 of 3 in Philly this weekend and the Fish have lost 3 of the last 4. Hammel has been great for the Cubs all season.
Remember baseball is a grind. It takes discipline and money management. It’s fun though when your hot!